Watching the Top Pollsters and Analysts Leading Up to November 8 (updated)

 

In the final analysis, as of 7:21 a.m. on 11/9/2016:

This election has demonstrated that political prediction and forecasting are still far from a science. The top analysts of the 2012 election got the 2016 election badly wrong in regard to the presidency, which went to the GOP’s Donald Trump. Among the analysts cited below, Nate Silver’s 538 got it least wrong, stating there was still a 28.2% chance Trump would win.  Those were still fairly good odds for Trump.

All kinds of unusual factors figured into this election, making it especially hard to predict, but the bottom line is that the prognosticators cited below got it wrong, as did the prediction/betting markets. In coming days, there will all kinds of analysis of where the polls and/or forecasts went haywire. There will be a lot of soul-searching in the political forecasting community, and there will be attempts to rectify the polling and modeling flaws that led to this massive failure. But whether or not the analytical establishment can actually get better is still, appropriately enough, beyond credible prediction.

Bottom Line as of 9:15 a.m. EST on 11/8/2016:

  1. President: Clinton is favored to win by all top analysts. The website 538 is the least optimistic but today there’s less variation in terms of how many electoral votes Clinton will get, with all forecasts exceeding 300 votes. If Trump wins, a lot of analysts will have a lot of explaining to do.
  2. Senate: This is still a toss-up, but the Dems are now slightly favored. The Dems have gained ground since yesterday in a couple of analytical models, so that all of them, even Silver’s, favor the Dems by a smallish margin.
  3. Governors: The GOP will have the majority of governor positions. At most, the Dems will have 19 after this election.
  4. House: The GOP is expected to hold the House of Representatives, but the Dems are likely to make inroads, making the overall balance between the parties more even.

U.S. Presidential Race

Updated at 9:00 a.m. EST on Nov. 8, Election Day

DeSart and Holbrook’s final forecast is in the table below, but other forecasts have continued into the day of the election. Here’s how it stands right now:

  • Silver’s group at 538 gives Clinton a 71.6% chance of winning and now favors Clinton in Florida. He predicts 302.3 electoral votes for Clinton, 234.9 for Trump.
  • Drew Linzer, posting at the Daily Kos, has bumped up Clinton’s chances of winning to 92%, predicting 319 Electoral Votes for Clinon, 219 for Trump.
  • Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium still predicts 99% chance of a Clinton win, with 307 Electoral Votes to Clinton and 231 to Trump.

 

November 5 November 6 November 7
DeSart & Holbrook: Model gives Clinton a 99.10% probability of winning at least the 270 Electoral College votes necessary to win the election: Clinton will win 347 electoral votes to Trump’s 191. DeSart & Holbrook: Projects Hillary Clinton will receive 52.97% of the national two-party popular vote to Donald Trump’s 47.03%. The model’s Electoral College projection suggests that Clinton will win 347 electoral votes to Trump’s 191. Overall, the model gives Secretary Clinton a 98.9% probability of winning DeSart & Holbrook: Our final forecast of the 2016 presidential election projects that Hillary Clinton will defeat Donald Trump, receiving 52.83% of the national two-party popular vote to Donald Trump’s 47.17%. The model’s Electoral College projection suggests that Clinton will win 347 electoral votes to Trump’s 191. Overall, the model gives Secretary Clinton a 98.6% probability of winning
Drew Linzer (Kos): Hillary Clinton has an 90% chance to win Drew Linzer (Kos): Hillary Clinton has a 87% chance of a win. Project 312 electoral votes for Clinton and 226 for Trump. Drew Linzer (Kos): Hillary Clinton has a 87% chance of a win. Project 312 electoral votes for Clinton and 226 for Trump.
Wang: Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift 98% Wang: As of November 6, 10:06AM EST:Clinton 312, Trump 226 EV Meta-margin: Clinton +2.5% Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift 99%, Bayesian >99% Wang: As of November 7, 7:06AM EST:Snapshot (192 state polls): Clinton 313, Trump 225 EV Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift >99%, Bayesian >99%. Clinton 313, Trump 225 EV
Nate Silver: Model gives Clinton a 64.7% chance of winning (polls-only forecast) Nate Silver: Model gives Clinton a 64.2% chance of winning (polls only forecast) Nate Silver: Model gives Clinton a 68.5% chance of winning (polls only forecast). Estimates the Electoral votes as 291.8 Clinton and 245.4 Trump.

Updated at 7:31 a.m. EST on Nov. 7

The Election Betting Odds are now 82.3% on Clinton and 17.4% on Trump. EBO estimates the Electoral College vote will be 323 to 215 favoring Clinton.

Meanwhile, meanwhile Drew Linzer continues to give Clinton an 87% chance and forecasts Clinton will get 312 Electoral Votes, compared with 226 for Trump.

Wang forecasts the Electoral Vote will favor Clinton 313 to 225 for Trump, and maintains at 99% confidence rate that Clinton will win, explaining the methodology here.

Silver has the odds favoring Clinton at 65.3%.

Updated at 7:33 p.m. EST on Nov. 6

With the news that the FBI will not recommend charges over Clinton emails, the statistics in Election Betting Odds shifted upwards for Clinton by  4.7% in just four hours. The EBO’s Electoral College estimate is now 323 to 215 in favor of Clinton.

Updated at 4:29 PM EST on Nov. 6

DeSart and Hollbrook updated with their November 6 forecast (see table).

Updated at 11:45 AM EST on Nov. 6

According to four of the most accurate analysts from the 2012 election season, Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidential contest, as of Nov 6 at 11:36 EST. However, the numbers associated with her chances of her winning vary widely, with Nate Silver’s 538 only giving her a 64.2% chance of winning (or 64.6% according to his “Now-cast”, which is the chances if the election were held right now). The fact that Silver’s model is so much more optimistic about Trump’s chances is interesting. If Trump does win the contest, analysts will be eager to find out how he was able to “unskew” the poll data.

U.S. Senate Race

Updated at 9:15 a.m. EST on Nov. 8, Election Day

  • Things are back to toss-up status for 538, with them now predicting a 50.7% chance that the Democrats will win control of the Senate. This is a bit of backtracking from yestereday.
  • Drew Linzer, posting at The Kos, gives Democrats a 66% chance of winning a Senate majority at 50 seats to 50 seats with a VP tie-breaker.
  • Wang gives Dems a chance of 82% of gaining majority control.
  • Election Betting Odds gives Dems a 58% change of gaining the Senate.

Updated at 3:43 p.m. EST on November 7

According to Nate Silver’s group, the odds now favor the GOP in the Senate by a substantial margin: 54.6% chance the GOP will hold the Senate. Election Betting Odds favors the Dems by 56.5% to 43.5%, a sizable change from earlier in the day. But RealClearPolitics’s “Senate No Toss Ups” prediction is that the Dems will win 49 and the GOP 51.

Generally speaking, things are looking better for the GOP in regard to the Senate today.

Updated at 7:48 a.m. EST on November 7

Nothing much has changed for Linzer and Wang, but Silver’s 538 is now slightly favoring the GOP’s chance of maintaining control of the Senate (50.9% for GOP and 49.1% for Dems). Election Betting Odds favors the Dems 60% to 40%.

Updated at 11:45 a.m. EST on November 6

The Senate race is a virtual coin toss, suggests Silver’s data. He gives the Democrats only a 50.1% chance of claiming a majority of the seats in the Senate. This is probably linked to the fact that Silver is much less optimistic about Clinton’s ultimate victory, which would give tying the Senate vote to the vice president. The other two analysts on the list are more optimistic about the Democrats taking control, but they’re also considerably more optimistic about Clinton’s ultimate victory.

Analysts November 6 November 7
Drew Linzer (Kos) Democrats have a 65% chance of winning a Senate majority, forecasting 50 seats for Democrats and 50 seats for Republicans Democrats have a 66% chance of winning a Senate majority, forecasting 50 seats for Democrats and 50 seats for Republicans
Wang & Ferguson Senate snapshot (48 polls): Dem+Ind: 50, GOP: 50, Meta-margin: D +0.8%, Nov. control probability: Dem. 80% Senate snapshot (48 polls): Dem+Ind: 50, GOP: 50, Meta-margin: D +0.7%, Nov. control probability: Dem. 79%
Nate Silver Democrats have 50.1% chance of winning Senate, assuming a 50-50 split Republicans have a 54.6% chance of winning Senate


U.S Gubernatorial Races

Updated at 7:48 a.m. EST on November 7

No changes in the below forecasts.

Updated at 11:45 a.m. EST

270towin indicates that the Democrats will lose two governor positions in the coming election. The numbers are currently 18 governors for the Democrats to 31 for the Republicans. The projection is for the Democrats to be down to 16 governorships at the end of this election (Alaska’s governor is an independent).

Meanwhile, the Daily Kos anticipates that 19 of the nation’s governors will be Democrats after this coming election.

U.S. House of Representatives Races

Updated at 9:30 a.m. EST on November 8

Election Projection is now back to a 16 seat gain for the Dems.

RealClearPolitics indicates 20 House seats remain a toss up.

Updated at 8:00 a.m. EST on November 7

Election Projection forecasts that the Republicans will lose 17 House seats to Democrats but retain overall control of the House of Representatives: 230 to 205.

Election Betting Odds gives the GOP a 93.5% chance of winning the House.

Updated at 11:45 a.m. EST on November 6

Election Projection forecasts that the Republicans will lose 16 House seats to Democrats but retain overall control of the House of Representatives: 231 to 204.

Leave a Reply