by Mark Vickers
Some analysts in the media are already trying to predict what Trump’s first 100 days will look like. Mr. Trump has laid out his plans in “Donald Trump’s Contract with the American Voter.” The features of his contract are in bold italics and my initial predictions about them are below that. These are, at best, educated guesses but it should be interesting to track them and come back in a few months (or years) to see how it went:
* FIRST, propose a Constitutional Amendment to impose term limits on all members of Congress;
11/14/2016 Prediction: Yes, he will propose it but, no, it will go nowhere because the Senate will not support it.
* SECOND, a hiring freeze on all federal employees to reduce federal workforce through attrition (exempting military, public safety, and public health);
11/14/2016 Prediction: Yes, he will be able to do with this Congress’s help, assuming he exempts the hiring of more Immigration and Customs Enforcement patrol officers (another one of his plans).
* THIRD, a requirement that for every new federal regulation, two existing regulations must be eliminated;
11/14/2016 Prediction: Yes, Congress will help him pass a version of this proposal, though it will wind up causing complex headaches in the future.
* FOURTH, a 5 year-ban on White House and Congressional officials becoming lobbyists after they leave government service;
11/14/2016 Prediction: Yes, Trump will institute the parts of a ban under his control but, no, Congress will not institute the ban on itself.
* FIFTH, a lifetime ban on White House officials lobbying on behalf of a foreign government;
11/14/2016 Prediction: No, if this requires an act of Congress, it won’t happen.
* SIXTH, a complete ban on foreign lobbyists raising money for American elections.
11/14/2016 Prediction: Yes, this is not a major issue, so he should be able to get it to happen if he pushes it.
On the same day, I will begin taking the following 7 actions to protect American workers:
* FIRST, I will announce my intention to renegotiate NAFTA or withdraw from the deal under Article 2205
11/14/2016 Prediction: He may announce something but, no, this will not happen, but Trump might toy with enforcement measures.
* SECOND, I will announce our withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership
11/14/2016 Prediction: Yes, Trump will do this, though it will ultimately strengthen China’s position in global markets.
* THIRD, I will direct my Secretary of the Treasury to label China a currency manipulator
11/14/2016 Prediction: Yes, Trump will do this, but it’s not clear what would follow.
* FOURTH, I will direct the Secretary of Commerce and U.S. Trade Representative to identify all foreign trading abuses that unfairly impact American workers and direct them to use every tool under American and international law to end those abuses immediately
* FIFTH, I will lift the restrictions on the production of $50 trillion dollars’ worth of job-producing American energy reserves, including shale, oil, natural gas and clean coal.
11/14/2016 Prediction: Yes. We must forget the actual number here but he will lift many restrictions on fossil-fuel production.
* SIXTH, lift the Obama-Clinton roadblocks and allow vital energy infrastructure projects, like the Keystone Pipeline, to move forward
11/14/2016 Prediction: Yes, he will remove such roadblocks. I think a rash of environmental protests will occur as a result.
* SEVENTH, cancel billions in payments to U.N. climate change programs and use the money to fix America’s water and environmental infrastructure
11/14/2016 Prediction: No, this can’t happen because the U.S. government does not give billions of dollar to the UN for climate work.
* FIRST, cancel every unconstitutional executive action, memorandum and order issued by President Obama
11/14/2016 Prediction: Yes, leaving aside the “unconstitutional” nature of Obama’s executive actions, Trump will be able to cancel many if not all of those actions.
* SECOND, begin the process of selecting a replacement for Justice Scalia from one of the 20 judges on my list, who will uphold and defend the Constitution of the United States
11/14/2016 Prediction: Yes, of course he will put forward a replacement, though who knows if it has to be from one of those 20 judges.
* THIRD, cancel all federal funding to Sanctuary Cities
11/14/2016 Prediction: No, he will not ultimately be able to cancel all federal funding to Sanctuary Cities, which are about 300 U.S. cities and counties that have policies protecting immigrants in the country illegally from federal immigration law. It’s likely the Democrats in the Senate will be able to prevent this, but it is likely that some federal funding to such cities will be lost.
* FOURTH, begin removing the more than 2 million criminal illegal immigrants from the country and cancel visas to foreign countries that won’t take them back
11/14/2016 Prediction: Yes, he will begin this process via executive action. No, he will not get two million illegal immigrants out of the country.
* FIFTH, suspend immigration from terror-prone regions where vetting cannot safely occur. All vetting of people coming into our country will be considered extreme vetting.
Next, I will work with Congress to introduce the following broader legislative measures and fight for their passage within the first 100 days of my Administration:
- Middle Class Tax Relief And Simplification Act. An economic plan designed to grow the economy 4% per year and create at least 25 million new jobs through massive tax reduction and simplification, in combination with trade reform, regulatory relief, and lifting the restrictions on American energy. The largest tax reductions are for the middle class. A middle-class family with 2 children will get a 35% tax cut. The current number of brackets will be reduced from 7 to 3, and tax forms will likewise be greatly simplified. The business rate will be lowered from 35 to 15 percent, and the trillions of dollars of American corporate money overseas can now be brought back at a 10 percent rate.
11/14/2016 Prediction: Yes, he will introduce it and Congress may well pass some version of it. No, he will not grow the economy 4% each year during his presidency.
- End The Offshoring Act. Establishes tariffs to discourage companies from laying off their workers in order to relocate in other countries and ship their products back to the U.S. tax-free.
11/14/2016 Prediction: No, Trump may introduce it but it’s unlikely to go anywhere because it’s just too difficult to implement.
- American Energy & Infrastructure Act. Leverages public-private partnerships, and private investments through tax incentives, to spur $1 trillion in infrastructure investment over 10 years. It is revenue neutral.
11/14/2016 Prediction: Yes, something will be put forward and, perhaps with Democratic help, it will pass after some political wrangling over funding. But, no, there will not be $1 trillion in infrastructure investment and it will not be revenue neutral.
- School Choice And Education Opportunity Act. Redirects education dollars to give parents the right to send their kid to the public, private, charter, magnet, religious or home school of their choice. Ends common core, brings education supervision to local communities. It expands vocational and technical education, and make 2 and 4-year college more affordable.
11/14/2016 Prediction: No. It might be introduced but it will not be possible to end Common Core because learning standards are adopted at the state level, and redirecting education dollars would take monies away from at-risk children. Something may be passed but it won’t live up to this billing.
- Repeal and Replace Obamacare Act. Fully repeals Obamacare and replaces it with Health Savings Accounts, the ability to purchase health insurance across state lines, and lets states manage Medicaid funds. Reforms will also include cutting the red tape at the FDA: there are over 4,000 drugs awaiting approval, and we especially want to speed the approval of life-saving medications.
11/14/2016 Prediction: Yes, Obamacare will be repealed to a large degree but it will not be replaced by anything that provides equally viable health insurance to the same numbers of people.
11/18/2016 Prediction: California-based futurist Ian Morrison told attendees of the New York Health Plan Association annual conference that, although symbolic changes to Obamacare will be swift, big modifications will take time, maybe not going into effect until 2019.
- Affordable Childcare and Eldercare Act. Allows Americans to deduct childcare and elder care from their taxes, incentivizes employers to provide on-side childcare services, and creates tax-free Dependent Care Savings Accounts for both young and elderly dependents, with matching contributions for low-income families.
11/14/2016 Prediction: No, this legislature will not pass because of deficit hawks in Congress.
- End Illegal Immigration Act. Fully-funds the construction of a wall on our southern border with the full understanding that the country Mexico will be reimbursing the United States for the full cost of such wall; establishes a 2-year mandatory minimum federal prison sentence for illegally re-entering the U.S. after a previous deportation, and a 5-year mandatory minimum for illegally re-entering for those with felony convictions, multiple misdemeanor convictions or two or more prior deportations; also reforms visa rules to enhance penalties for overstaying and to ensure open jobs are offered to American workers first.
11/14/2016 Prediction: Yes, some legislation will pass this year because this was such a prominent promise during the campaign. There will be some building, but there will not be a wall built all along the entire border and Mexico will not reimburse the U.S. for what is built. Stiffer penalties for illegals will be enacted, though probably not along these exact lines.
- Restoring Community Safety Act. Reduces surging crime, drugs and violence by creating a Task Force On Violent Crime and increasing funding for programs that train and assist local police; increases resources for federal law enforcement agencies and federal prosecutors to dismantle criminal gangs and put violent offenders behind bars.
11/14/2016 Prediction: No, although some minor law may be passed along these lines, there will be no major legislation. There is funding from existing programs, and crime is not surging compared a decade ago, much less three to four decades ago.
- Restoring National Security Act. Rebuilds our military by eliminating the defense sequester and expanding military investment; provides Veterans with the ability to receive public VA treatment or attend the private doctor of their choice; protects our vital infrastructure from cyber-attack; establishes new screening procedures for immigration to ensure those who are admitted to our country support our people and our values
11/14/2016 Prediction: No. This is likely to get tied up in Congress and, because of previous laws, it is a complex issue to address.
- Clean up Corruption in Washington Act. Enacts new ethics reforms to Drain the Swamp and reduce the corrupting influence of special interests on our politics.
11/14/2016 Prediction: Yes, something will be passed, but “corruption” is a very subjective term in the U.S. system, which is awash in campaign funds and lobbying jobs. So, even assuming we can define the term in a clear way, no, the corruption in Washington will not be cleared up. Any changes will be around the margins.